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Computer generated forecasts play an important role in our daily lives, for example, predicting weather or economies. Forecasts combine computational models of relevant dynamical processes with measured data. Errors are always present through incomplete observations plus imperfections in the model, so forecasts must be constantly calibrated with new data. In the geosciences, this is called […]
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Tore Schweder, co-author of Confidence, Likelihood, Probability, examines whether or not prior distribution is needed if it is not based on data.
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