Fifteen Eighty Four

We have seen a relatively rapid progress of the energy transition in recent years, with increased adoption of wind and solar power, electrification of heating and transport as well as an amplification of innovation pursuits in energy storage, in particular batteries. Equally, we have witnessed energy security rising to the front of discussions. Recent incidents that damage critical energy infrastructure have taken place in the Baltic Sea in Europe – such as the damages of Balticconnector gas pipeline in 2023 and of Estlink 2 powerline in 2024 connecting Estonia and Finland. These show that energy infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable to intentional damage alongside technical faults and climate change impacts.

However, at the turn of the 2020s, when I started planning my book, questions related to security were little discussed in connection to energy transitions or my research field: sustainability transitions. I was intrigued by how security ties into sustainability transitions when zero-carbon innovations diffuse and their impact on the energy system becomes more substantial. I also sought to find out how exactly are energy policy making and security and defence policymaking interconnected. I was interested in questions like: Are there discussions between the different ministries? Are such discussions based on institutionalised processes or merely informal? What kind of knowledge exchange and preparedness takes place?

I had two ambitions with this book: to introduce security studies and geopolitics to sustainability transitions research and to present in-depth the detailed empirical research conducted on the interface between energy policy and security and defence policies from a small country perspective. Related to the latter, the book contains four in-depth country chapters on Estonia, Finland, Norway and the Scottish perspective on the United Kingdom – with insights particularly on policymaking before 2022 but also making comparisons to the 2023 situation.

In tackling these ambitions, I took a broad perspective on security. To begin with, I wanted to be aware of different definitions given to security before, but also allow different takes on security arising from the empirical data. This approach helped me keep an open mind when those that were interviewed made connections between energy transitions and security. As a result, the book discusses a plethora of security aspects, ranging from traditional ‘hard security’ of defence and nation states to also the ‘softer side’ of positive security linked to individuals, communities and just transitions. I was also much influenced by Rita Floyd’s book “The Morality of Security: A Theory of Just Securitization”. I think there is much more space for research and public debates on how security and justice are interconnected, what synergies and trade-offs they have, and what this means for sustainability.

From the transitions side, I found the deep transitions work linking to security particularly useful. Yet, research linking sustainability transitions and security is in its early stages and requires much more insights.

Empirically, drawing from real-world policymaking context, the book shows that irrespective of what perspective on security is taken, the policy interface around the energy-security nexus has often been incoherent and security was frequently ignored in energy transitions policy particularly before 2022. This was the case in all four countries, although the cases are shaped by countries’ histories and cultures as well as subcultures of energy and security sectors. Of course, the events I referred to in the beginning have meant that this policy interface has substantially changed since 2022 and at least some policy learning has taken place. There has been gradual improvement of interaction between energy and security sectors, and, for instance, NATO and the EU have increased their interest in this area.

The empirical energy context also highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of sustainability transitions. Instead of a relatively straightforward transition where disruptive innovations expand and replace an old fossil-fuel based system, the real-world context draws attention to reconfiguration and restabilisation. This means that while some parts of the energy transition progress – such as wind and solar power – the fossil fuel sector keeps its hold for economic and security reasons in many parts of the world.

To reap synergies between zero-carbon energy transition and security, improvements in policy coherence are needed on many levels. This means explicit recognition of synergies and conflicts, taking a long enough time perspective on decision making, and formalising processes of interaction to increase learning and improve transparency. The political dimension is vital, as civil servants in their work are guided and instructed by politicians. Across Europe there was a shift in political orientations as a result of the events of 2022 from energy markets to energy security. This creates much more potential for coherence between energy transition and security policies than before. However, this also contains a risk of increased support to fossil fuel-based energy systems – especially if decision making is based on misinformation or a short-term point of view.

The ways in which Europe dealt with the energy crisis of 2022 showed that the level of preparedness was such that there were no black outs. Some have described this as an ‘energy price crisis’ instead of an ‘energy supply crisis’. Yet, to survive future crises too, we need increased expertise and foresight that tie together energy, security and sustainability.

Title: Security in Sustainable Energy Transitions

ISBN: 9781009368162

Author: Dr Paula Kivimaa